Earlier this year, we contributed to a fairly optimistic forecast for 2020, with the caveat that the continued lack of skilled workers could create a drag on the construction economy. Then came the COVID-19 global pandemic, a human health tragedy, and now everything has changed. In my 40 years in the business, I have never experienced such a stark difference in economic outlook and uncertainty.

Through our association with Wiggert & Co., our Germany-based parent company, we became aware early on about the international impact of the coronavirus and the havoc it is wreaking around the globe. Worldwide markets are unsettled, to say the least, and in the U.S. unprecedented levels of volatility have amplified the anxiety among Americans. To put it mildly, people are freaking out.

In fact, the coronavirus and its impact now makes forecasting the remainder of 2020 impossible. Instead, let’s look at what we know now, what we might expect in the near term, and how we can best prepare to meet the challenges ahead.

While the expectation is that the U.S. economy has entered into recession, non-residential construction typically lags the overall economy by 12 to 18 months, said Anirban Basu, chief economist for the Associated Builders and Contractors. This means that many contractors can expect “far more difficult circumstances” next year.

Despite that dire assessment, my hope is that the House and Senate will soon pass an infrastructure modernization spending bill. There will be much discussion over the summer and into the fall on how big to make it and how to pay for it. In fact, there are indications recently that construction material supplier stocks are recovering on anticipation that this will be an effective approach to putting recently laid off people back to work.